Will Grandfathered Plans Blow Up?

They will likely enter the death spiral at some point. One of my carriers feel comfortable with their GF business. They did take a big rate increase last year. We shall see how long it goes, but it's simply a matter of time. That book of business gets older, no real new people going in to it, claims start climbing, etc lead to higher premiums.


I wonder what 2015 ACA rates will look like.
 
I just don't see this happening at other carriers in the coming year. All the GI plans that are mixed in with the GF pool will be leaving to the ACA pool.

Anthem to raise some premiums as much as 25% - latimes.com



All I've seen from my end is the sickest with the highest premiums seeking refuge on and off exchange. I have a couple in SC that was paying $1200/month until they purchased off exchange for $800 at a lower deductible. Their claims average ~$25 - $30K yearly. I've seen the same thing here, but that was the most notable. GF status didn't mean anything to them.


What you've said is pretty funny though it really hasn't been discussed that much. The GF books are going to be the healthiest people initially.
 
I'm worried about some carriers. I have 2 GF groups coming up for renewal already, and both received 25% rate increases. Last year it was 7% for one and 8% for the other.
 
This is one that is very state specific. Almost all my existing groups went to a 12/1 renewal date to keep there GF plan and rates. A few moved to 1/1, because they saw premium decreases due to ACA. In Texas, we almost always see an annual 15% increase, so 20% isn't that big of deal. What happens next 12/1 is the big question mark. I see a lot of my groups telling their employees "I'm done. Here's $2400 a year. Go get individual" . And since all my groups are under 50 employees, that probably makes the most sense. (As long as their agent says Jenny, I don't care what type of plan they have)

My individuals that are in GF status are happy and really hoping that they don't have to move next year. And I don't see the rates increasing that much compared to previous years.
 
I know that if I lose my GF status, my rates would double - at least. I may end up being the first uninsured insurance agent if that happens. . . . .
 
You are not the first. I know of many agents that start out new in this industry who cannot afford health insurance.
 
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