I think it would be fun to make guesses at what the bottom for the Dow Jones will be. So let's all make a guess and come back to the post if and when we ever get out of this ...
And the retail price of the window air conditioner is....
I think it will fall below 5000, people will panic and then it will collapse.
Which to me is the ultimate irony. 97% of the population should not have money in stocks. And yet everyone is talking abou the Dow. Ask anyone on the street what the Dow is and I bet you don't get a single correct answer.
People with enough money to invest in stocks don't care what the Dow does, other than passing discussion on their private jets as they fly to Fiji and New Zealand. It's kind of like me and $5.00 blackjack tables.
I think it will fall below 5000, people will panic and then it will collapse.
People with enough money to invest in stocks don't care what the Dow does, other than passing discussion on their private jets as they fly to Fiji and New Zealand. It's kind of like me and $5.00 blackjack tables.
Huh...? Bob, you have lost it brother. I know some folks with a heap big bunch of money... milyuns upon milyuns, and then some... and believe me, they care what the Dow does, the S&P does and the Russel 2000 does. There are also fewer ppl hopping on their private or non-private jets to scurry away to the South Pacific... Many Bilyuns and Trilyuns of dollars are being lost and it is affecting the decision process of folks at ALL levels of the spectrum, including the ultra rich... 50 mil and above net worth.
Oh BTW, I say we are about there on declines. not below 6500 on the Dow and not below 675 on the S&P. I began buying a few stocks this afternoon... so sayz my crystalBALLZ
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"A successful man is one who can lay a firm foundation with the bricks others have thrown at him." David Brinkley
Be careful those crystal ballz dont get cut off along the way.
5800 is the correct answer. But that will just be a reactionary dip based on some really bad news event, of which there will be plenty to choose from in the next six months. The floor is probably above that but will stagnate at the floor level, up and down a bit, until the first of the year or so.
------------------------------------ Stop the madness. We are going broke.
Huh...? Bob, you have lost it brother. I know some folks with a heap big bunch of money... milyuns upon milyuns, and then some... and believe me, they care what the Dow does, the S&P does and the Russel 2000 does. There are also fewer ppl hopping on their private or non-private jets to scurry away to the South Pacific... Many Bilyuns and Trilyuns of dollars are being lost and it is affecting the decision process of folks at ALL levels of the spectrum, including the ultra rich... 50 mil and above net worth.
Oh BTW, I say we are about there on declines. not below 6500 on the Dow and not below 675 on the S&P. I began buying a few stocks this afternoon... so sayz my crystalBALLZ
I think you missed my point. My point is most people (upwards of 95% or more of the US population) should not have a dime in the stock market. The stock market is just like a giant blackjack table. No one really can give you any logical explantion of how the stock market works. There is no rhyme or reason as to why stocks trade the way they do. Oh there are theories out there but nothing concrete. Madoff sure made it seem like he knew the theory and we all know how that worked out for his clients...
The New York Stock Exchange is a craps game on a massive scale. Millions of millions of dollars are being lost on the slot machines in Vegas and yet no one cares.
The people that can have money in the stock market are the ultra wealthy who think $1,000,000 is good bet on a 30 foot putt.
Let there be no mistake though, trillions of dollars of wealth has disappeared in a *poof*. It has devestated millions upon millions of retirement accounts. It has wiped out family fortunes.
Can anyone rationally argue for the concept of mutual funds?
I think you missed my point. My point is most people (upwards of 95% or more of the US population) should not have a dime in the stock market. The stock market is just like a giant blackjack table. No one really can give you any logical explantion of how the stock market works. There is no rhyme or reason as to why stocks trade the way they do. Oh there are theories out there but nothing concrete. Madoff sure made it seem like he knew the theory and we all know how that worked out for his clients...
The New York Stock Exchange is a craps game on a massive scale. Millions of millions of dollars are being lost on the slot machines in Vegas and yet no one cares.
The people that can have money in the stock market are the ultra wealthy who think $1,000,000 is good bet on a 30 foot putt.
Let there be no mistake though, trillions of dollars of wealth has disappeared in a *poof*. It has devestated millions upon millions of retirement accounts. It has wiped out family fortunes.
Can anyone rationally argue for the concept of mutual funds?
You can make an argument as well that trillions of dollars of wealth have disappeared overnight in home values which are traditionally considered the most cautious of investments so therefore no one should be in homes.
One of the areas where the investment environment falls apart is in the area of deficient regulatory oversight (I dont mean new laws, I mean government bozos just not doing their jobs) and bogus independent accounting.
Example, Enron was basically caused by Andersen Little one of the most prestigious accounting firms in the country before they went down. Sure, Enron was crooked but that is the job of the independent auditor to review their books and certify to investors. Same with Madoff. Sure, he is a crook but the fact that there are crooks out there is a constant. That is the SEC's job to investigate/regulate. Same with overextended banks. They were not being audited. And certainly, Fannie and Freddie are classic examples of people relying on the value of securitized mortgages with the totally rediculous assumption that the government was auditing or overseeing government backed lending practices. Turned out that they were doing nothing. And indeed you have all these S&P ratings, and AM Best ratings and all of that that are a complete crock based on what they did and did not look at.
The market has always involved risks. The thing that is different now is that it is harder and harder to take an educated, researched risk because so much information is bogus. Even with your local bank. You may read that they are safe and secure and government-audited etc but you could wake up tomorrow and find that no on has ever really looked at anything and it was all just a house of cards.
If the government put the same effort into chasing the bad guys rather than bailing out their buddies at Fannie and Goldman Sachs and in harassing honest businesses with paperwork then we would not be where we are.
Well lets see Pad... IF we see anything like 500 (or even 2000), I wonder what you will be doing for a living...? It won't be insurance, because if your prediction comes true the entire financial system, including almost ALL insurance cos) will have collapsed by default. It will only take a couple.
What the ins system offers is trust and security, via risk transfer. Let a couple of big ins cos default and see if anyone has any trust in writing a prem check to any ins co... that no longer offers the oppty to transfer risk because they are AWOL when needed. Doubt it.
So I wonder if you will be near the front or the rear of that bread line...?
Sure, it could happen, mostly because we have BOZO's running things that have absolutely NO IDEA what to do to stem the tide here. There must be a floor put under the real estate mkt, and they had a stroke of good sense in the stimulus bill... until they struck it out, or modified it to the point of neutering it. There was a tax credit for RE purchases of up to 15K for anyone who bought a house. NOT first time buyers, anyone. That would have stimulated house sales, lending, etc, etc... But NO, that makes too much freaking sense, we better get rid of that.
I am convinced more and more each day that all this really is... is a power grab by our Gov't. A way to control the masses... Maybe Sen Byrd ins't such a senile old coot after all. Maybe he nailed it right on the noggin. Our financial system is currently in the mouth of the lion; it will be interesting to see what happen as the circus progresses (or digresses).
Last edited by SportsNut : 03-03-2009 at 10:28 AM.
You can make an argument as well that trillions of dollars of wealth have disappeared overnight in home values which are traditionally considered the most cautious of investments so therefore no one should be in homes.
Your primary residence should be a place to live you should NOT view it as an investment.
I think real estate investing is much safer investment than stocks because people need to live somewhere. People will make fortunes in the next 3 years by buying real estate. The real estate market resembles some sence of normalcy now in a lot of places.
I think you missed my point. My point is most people (upwards of 95% or more of the US population) should not have a dime in the stock market. The stock market is just like a giant blackjack table. No one really can give you any logical explantion of how the stock market works. There is no rhyme or reason as to why stocks trade the way they do. Oh there are theories out there but nothing concrete. Madoff sure made it seem like he knew the theory and we all know how that worked out for his clients...
The New York Stock Exchange is a craps game on a massive scale. Millions of millions of dollars are being lost on the slot machines in Vegas and yet no one cares.
The people that can have money in the stock market are the ultra wealthy who think $1,000,000 is good bet on a 30 foot putt.
Let there be no mistake though, trillions of dollars of wealth has disappeared in a *poof*. It has devestated millions upon millions of retirement accounts. It has wiped out family fortunes.
Can anyone rationally argue for the concept of mutual funds?
I understand your point.
The problem is most people have mutual funds tied into their 401ks or pensions. Mutual funds are nothing more than scams. Your trusting someone else to invest your money and really have know clue of what the true holdings are at any one time. Since the 401k has been sold to us as the way to save for retirement we all have been sold a crock of ****.
I do think after this depression we are in, Wall St. will be a dirty word for the next couple of generations as it was after the great depression.
I think you missed my point. My point is most people (upwards of 95% or more of the US population) should not have a dime in the stock market. The stock market is just like a giant blackjack table. No one really can give you any logical explantion of how the stock market works. There is no rhyme or reason as to why stocks trade the way they do. Oh there are theories out there but nothing concrete. Madoff sure made it seem like he knew the theory and we all know how that worked out for his clients...
The New York Stock Exchange is a craps game on a massive scale. Millions of millions of dollars are being lost on the slot machines in Vegas and yet no one cares.
The people that can have money in the stock market are the ultra wealthy who think $1,000,000 is good bet on a 30 foot putt.
Let there be no mistake though, trillions of dollars of wealth has disappeared in a *poof*. It has devestated millions upon millions of retirement accounts. It has wiped out family fortunes.
Can anyone rationally argue for the concept of mutual funds?
People should not be dumb enough to vote for Marxists. An investment in the market is an investment in the economy. The SEC and Congress are a joke. Hedge funds had carte blanche. The govt forced banks to lend money to anyone.
A portion of long-term money in equity index funds is a good idea. The Democrats will be pushing people to put their retirementmoney into the Social Securitry Ponzi scheme.
The problem is most people have mutual funds tied into their 401ks or pensions. Mutual funds are nothing more than scams. Your trusting someone else to invest your money and really have know clue of what the true holdings are at any one time. Since the 401k has been sold to us as the way to save for retirement we all have been sold a crock of ****.
I do think after this depression we are in, Wall St. will be a dirty word for the next couple of generations as it was after the great depression.
Mutual funds are scams perpetrated by the Federal Government. 401ks, IRA, etc were all put in place for the benefit of the mutual fund companies.
I think you are right about the dirty word concept.
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Originally Posted by Freddie
People should not be dumb enough to vote for Marxists. An investment in the market is an investment in the economy. The SEC and Congress are a joke. Hedge funds had carte blanche. The govt forced banks to lend money to anyone.
A portion of long-term money in equity index funds is a good idea. The Democrats will be pushing people to put their retirementmoney into the Social Securitry Ponzi scheme.
An investment in the market is an investment in the economy????
Who sold you that bill of goods? You do realize when you buy stocks you are just trading pieces of paper with other people for prices that have nothing to do with any 'economy'.
Long-term money in equity index funds should be the last stop on a financial security train. For most people they never get to that station.
Last edited by bobson : 03-03-2009 at 12:05 PM.
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How Low Will The Dow Go ?
Re: How Low Will The Dow Go ?
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