How would universal health care affect agents?

jimsthename · 10-05-2008, 11:55 AM

It's looking more and more like Barack Obama might be our next president and with his election would come a drive towards a universal health care plan.

I would like to see some thoughts/ideas on what the health insurance industry might look like were this to happen, AND MOST IMPORTANTLY, how agents would be impacted.

Paradigm · 10-05-2008, 12:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jimsthename

It's looking more and more like Barack Obama might be our next president and with his election would come a drive towards a universal health care plan.

I would like to see some thoughts/ideas on what the health insurance industry might look like were this to happen, AND MOST IMPORTANTLY, how agents would be impacted.

My assessment is it is just another election year promise like energy independence.

The reality is there is simply no money for it short term given the financial crisis.

The first change will be the elimination of underwriting standards and the introduction of a nationwide guaranteed issue plan. The insurance industry will fight it tooth and nail and it will actually drive up the cost of insurance. The government will have to increase taxes to pay for the difference in cost and for the indigent.

If it were to happen the hammering down of rates in this health insurance exchange would eventually reduce commissions and then eventually eliminate the agent entirely as insurance becomes standardized like medicare part B, but both would take years. There is no infrastructure in place and the political will is not as strong as some would make us believe. So in the short term there should be very little immediate effect.

I have talked to execs at Humana, Aetna, Anthem, and United Healthcare and they dont seem worried. The governmental system will not allow it to happen quickly at all. So short term no need to worry.

healthagent · 10-05-2008, 12:08 PM

If Obama gets his plan in place, why would anyone healthy pay for health insurance?

Heck, you want until you get sick then grab a GI plan.

joshril · 10-05-2008, 01:06 PM

It won't happen immediately, if ever. There are a lot of lobbying dollars behind the insurance business. Obama will be influenced by the lobbyists just as much as any other president...

We keep forgetting something like this would have to go through Congress. Most of our representatives and senators have so many lobbying dollars stuck up their asses currently, I'm not worried...

Here's the other issue... state regulation. Right now the states regulate health insurance. The states make a lot of money doing this. Many states are not going to want to give up the oversight.

Paradigm · 10-05-2008, 01:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by joshril

It won't happen immediately, if ever. There are a lot of lobbying dollars behind the insurance business. Obama will be influenced by the lobbyists just as much as any other president...

We keep forgetting something like this would have to go through Congress. Most of our representatives and senators have so many lobbying dollars stuck up their asses currently, I'm not worried...

Here's the other issue... state regulation. Right now the states regulate health insurance. The states make a lot of money doing this. Many states are not going to want to give up the oversight.

True! talking points and stump speeches are one thing but making it a reality is quite another. Still I am slowly transforming my business from mostly health insurance and some financial planning to full service financial planning where I still offer health insurance.

I think we have a good three years left. Which means an opportunity to sell about 6 million in health insurance in my case. After that all bets are off.

thereaper · 10-05-2008, 01:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Paradigm

True! talking points and stump speeches are one thing but making it a reality is quite another. Still I am slowly transforming my business from mostly health insurance and some financial planning to full service financial planning where I still offer health insurance.

I think we have a good three years left. Which means an opportunity to sell about 6 million in health insurance in my case. After that all bets are off.

I believe you've hit the nail on the head, won't happen at all or just before the 2012 election. If states get there before the feds that alone would save our careers. Florida's law on a lower cost health plan with fewer or no state mandates and very little underwriting if any will take effect Jan 1, 2009. The three top insurers in this state have working to come up with plans to cover this law and agents will be selling them. If other states can come up with something before the next election the national healthcare might be a mute point.

Now let's face it: If any of us thinks for a minute our congress or senate can get their crap together and agree on something (although the did on the bailout) then we're in never never land.

healthagent · 10-05-2008, 01:31 PM

Listen - everyone take a history lesson and Google Hillary's attempt in '93.

So...how did that end up?

al3 · 10-05-2008, 03:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by healthagent

Listen - everyone take a history lesson and Google Hillary's attempt in '93.

A lot has changed in the past 15 years.

The Congress got together and passed this bailout bill in a two weeks. What happens if there is a landslide (mandate) for Obama and we get a 61 Dem. majority in the Senate and a simple majority in the House... how long after Jan. 20, 2009 will it take to bring a bill out of committee and get it to the floor and get a vote? I say about 30 days... sixty tops!

Al

Paradigm · 10-05-2008, 03:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by al3

A lot has changed in the past 15 years.

The Congress got together and passed this bailout bill in a two weeks. What happens if there is a landslide (mandate) for Obama and we get a 61 Dem. majority in the Senate and a simple majority in the House... how long after Jan. 20, 2009 will it take to bring a bill out of committee and get it to the floor and get a vote? I say about 30 days... sixty tops!

Al

The infrastructure simply doesnt exist....

The exchange that will trade these bad bonds on doesnt exist yet and will take months to create and thats a far easier endeavor.

Plus the insurance companies will simply not allow it to happen, we dont live in a democracy we live in a corporate autocracy as we speak. All this talk of healthcare is stump speech rhethoric... The reality of this is as follows from Obama's own lips "to have a national healthcare system by the end of my first term" he a bit assumptive that he will get a second one LOL.

But even Obama knows that it will take alot of lobbying, trading favors, etc to get anything done. Keep this in mind most measures include democrat and republicans and the reason is no one party wants to "own" an initiative esp in the house because if they do its a short election cycle until they are voted out of office.

Nope a bi partisan commission will first be created to study the problem, all will get a voice and we will end up witha system that is still private but offers the uninsured a national safety net subject to government subsidy.

Obama will find out quite quickly if elected that the powers that be who really decide give him far less lattitude that he imagined. Democracy is just a dream that doesnt really exist even in the United States of Amerika.

healthagent · 10-05-2008, 04:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by al3

A lot has changed in the past 15 years.

The Congress got together and passed this bailout bill in a two weeks. What happens if there is a landslide (mandate) for Obama and we get a 61 Dem. majority in the Senate and a simple majority in the House... how long after Jan. 20, 2009 will it take to bring a bill out of committee and get it to the floor and get a vote? I say about 30 days... sixty tops!

Al

Ask your doctor if he's ready to take on about 300 more patients.

And Al - if it all goes GI - why would any healthy person have coverage? Wouldn't it make better sense to have nothing then simply pick up coverage when you need it - use it then cancel?

Paradigm · 10-05-2008, 04:10 PM

Al the bailout was a giant scam... They scared people into it through creating fear in the markets.... They portrayed it as a problem that would effect everyone universally.

We were sold a bill of goods its the largest money and power grab in history. I am beginning to see things from our American government that I thought Id never see.

To be truthful with you I'm not even 100% sure the election will occur. I belive "an event" either financial or otherwise may suspend them. I could be wrong but the # of trial balloons that have been floated leads me to believe something will happen maybe a preemptive strike on Iran and resultant threats may make it impossible to safely hold an election. As stated I do not believe we live in a democratic society anymore and all beats are now off.
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I hope I'm wrong but I fear I'm not. National healthcare would cost an extraordinary amount and with the medicare and social security problems looming in addition to the financial crisis there is no money.

The reality is also this high taxes on businesses and investors destimulate the economy and depress tax receipts.

Say what you will about the Bush Tax Cuts but and this is a fact "they increased the tax recepts collected by the IRS"

When taxes are low there is more incentive to earn more and less incentive to hide your earnings

healthagent · 10-05-2008, 04:16 PM

Under Obama's plan - planning a family? Get nothing - then simply wait until you get pregnant - pick up your "GI, can't exclude pre-ex" plan - have the kid, drop the plan.

We'll only BK the entire health system in about a year.

Paradigm · 10-05-2008, 04:20 PM

As Ive said the stump is one thing...in office is another

The reason is that once in office the "powers that be" tell the President what he is allowed to do and tell him what he cannot do.

Too many office holders have mentioned this "shadow govt" for it not to exist from Eisenhower in his fairwell address to today

patch36 · 10-05-2008, 05:23 PM

One of the ways they may pay for it is to make health insurance mandatory. That rubs a lot of people the wrong way, but anything else will not work. Without a pool of relatively healthy people the cost of insuring the rest of us will be astronomical.

Young and very healthy people do not want mandatory health insurance, but that is the direction we are headed. It is no longer a philosophical question, it is a matter of when and how universal healthcare will be instituted. Old people, poor people, veterans, government workers and employees of larger companies already have health insurance. Independent businesses, folks who fall through the cracks, young people, and chronically ill who are unable to buy insurance through a group are the ones who will be covered by whatever form of universal healthcare we are force fed.

I am in favor of creating large groups or merging those of us who are in a position to pay for insurance but don't fall into a traditional employer/group plan. Merge us into a large group like the federal workers and all of the sudden we can buy insurance at a fair market rate. Make it mandatory and the large number of uninsured healthy people will offset the cost of the less healthy, just like any major group already experiences.

Will it work? As long as the government can print money and inflation doesn't devalue our currency to the point it takes a wheelbarrow of it to buy simple necessities it will work. The projected costs are well below the welfare/bailout we just handed out to the corporation and pork barrel recipients, and are less than we spend to fight for the democracy of unfriendly foreign countries.

The opportunities for agents will evolve. They can't provide the current versions of universal healthcare without us, like Medicare, so there is no reason to believe we will all the sudden not be a part of the picture when the 'new' universal healthcare comes along.

Mr. Bill · 10-05-2008, 05:25 PM

Let's face it, many of us make far more than the average GP out there and guess what our E&O is compared to malpractice?

You'd see the doctor industry go the same as the mortgage industry, and all of a sudden, a whole lotta doctors would be selling insurance!