Don't get me wrong. Reform in a limited piecemeal way is coming but dont let anyone kid you. Both bills are in serious, serious trouble. Obama has lost momentum and he desparately needed to ram a bill through at the high point during the afterglow of his election. That period has gone. As previously discussed, if he did not cap it off before August recess, the horse would be out of the barn once congress started talking to their constituents back home. Thus we had tea parties.
Don't let anyone tell you that Virginia and NJ were not about Obama. I can concede that they were about local mismanagement, property taxes, and government excesses at the state level. Well, what do people think of when they think of Obama? Same thing but more squandering on the national level. Only an idiot voter cannot connect the dots and only a hard core dem partisan will think they wont. The votes in NJ and Virginia may or may not have been a repudiation of Obama but they sure as heck were a repudiation of government excess, in other words Obamanomics.
The reform bill is going to slip into 2010 (possibly 2011) period. That is going to happen. Once you are into 2010 you are into a Congressional election year. The window to close the deal on the type of bills that are on the floor now has closed period. Reform is coming though. It is just that it will come piecemeal on the elements where they can hammer out consensus rather than a big sprawling can of worms where no one knows what is in it.
NJ and Virginia will also demonstrate that blacks and hispanics show up for Obama but not necessarily for the issues. Is Obama going to be on the ballot in 2010? No.
The repubs/conservatives can't win back enough seats to recapture the house but they certainly can drive a pantload of them over into the blue dog camp which is as problematic to the left wing agenda as can be short of being a true conservative.
As stated last week, if you like the sight of pain on the face of Harry Reid and Mrs. Pelosi, you will start seeing it this week. Well, here we are, and I am feeling the love. Frig all that buzz about the public option for the last couple weeks. The mojo just isnt there for it right now. It looks like it is there but ALL of the fundamentals are against it and they are not going to go away. 2010 is going to be a long hard slog for President Obama.
In regard to the implications of the NY congressional elections, I think the message is clear that if your party can't get it together you are going to get beaten. I would worry about that if I were Repubican, Conservative, Liberal, or Democrat. Plenty more ahead.
Change you can believe in.
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And let's not overlook Maine refusing to pass a same sex marriage referendum . . .
There is public opinion and politically correct. Reminds me of CA when Miss America (or whatever she was) was crucified by the media for her comments when the public majority voted the same way she spoke. Not saying right or wrong, just interesting. My guess is the public health reform movement is very similar.
I think the connection between two governor races, Obama, and health insurance reform is pretty non existent. Two governor races in mismanaged states are hardly applicable. I don't get the connection.
Obamacare will pass. The only thing in question is WHAT and WHEN.
I think the connection between two governor races, Obama, and health insurance reform is pretty non existent. Two governor races in mismanaged states are hardly applicable. I don't get the connection.
Obamacare will pass. The only thing in question is WHAT and WHEN.
How many times did Obama campaign in New Jersey while ignoring the two wars, his health care challenge and the economy? The only think more embarressing than his guy getting whipped in New Jersey is that Chicago took last place in the bid for the Olympics.
I think the connection between two governor races, Obama, and health insurance reform is pretty non existent. Two governor races in mismanaged states are hardly applicable. I don't get the connection.
Obamacare will pass. The only thing in question is WHAT and WHEN.
It's pretty hard to deny that Obamacare will pass because now one knows what that is so whatever passes becomes Obamacare. Public Option= Obamacare. No public option = Obamacare. Just beat the crap out of insurance carriers and call it a day = Obamacare. No public option but trigger= Obamacare. Pass a resolution to think about it next year= Obamacare.
If I am wrong, perhaps someone could direct me to the legislation that Obama had introduced.
I think the connection between the state elections and Obamacare is overwhelming. Point number one, he needs mojo to get Obamacare, whatever that is, passed. He don't got mojo no mo. Yes, those states have been mismanaged but they voted overwhelming democratic just a year ago. Second, the intolerance of government bogus expenditures is growing at both the national and state level and it works both ways. The states are worried about both California and Obamanomics and the feds are worried about grassroots rebellion which often shows in the states first.
I think it is easy to overthink the connection for partisan purposes. However to say that the connection is "non-existent" would be wishful thinking on the dems part. If you are flying along in a plane and only one rivet pops out probably you are still okay. It would get my attention though. The dems popped a couple rivets yesterday.
The other thing that has enormous entertainment value is that the dems are a confident, cocky bunch that have been acting like they can do no wrong but now they are all getting scared shootlesss. Maybe you are right. There is no connection whatsoever but no one in their right minds believes that the dems are worried about it.
Being a compassionate conservative, I feel their pain and I know you do too.
When a weak candidate loses, I'm not sure it is any sort of referendum on anything other than the weak candidate. It did cost Obama a lot of political capital, at least in New Jersey, but I don't think it really matters on the health care debate.
In other words, I do think Obama did himself some harm, but, the elections really didn't prove anything one way or another.
On a broader scale, you can read into the elections a bit more, on these off year elections, people might get confident or nervous, but I'm not sure it matters much.
If Harmer had won district 10 in California, then that might have been a big impact, at least for me, since this is where I live. Since the tables were so against him, that didn't seem likely and of course didn't happen, though I think he beat the vegas odds.
When a weak candidate loses, I'm not sure it is any sort of referendum on anything other than the weak candidate. It did cost Obama a lot of political capital, at least in New Jersey, but I don't think it really matters on the health care debate.
In other words, I do think Obama did himself some harm, but, the elections really didn't prove anything one way or another.
On a broader scale, you can read into the elections a bit more, on these off year elections, people might get confident or nervous, but I'm not sure it matters much.
If Harmer had won district 10 in California, then that might have been a big impact, at least for me, since this is where I live. Since the tables were so against him, that didn't seem likely and of course didn't happen, though I think he beat the vegas odds.
Dan
Wait until Medicaid is expanded through Obamacare which in fact creates a huge unfunded mandate crammed down the throats of the states who must provide the match. If there are any idiot voters left in any idiot states who are only concerned about balancing state budgets and think it is not connected to what is going on with health care, then that little illusion will disappear. Also, wait until stimulus one runs out which most states have used to plug their state budgets. If there is not another round of stimulus more states will go off a cliff. If we start getting tough with them and tell them they need to cut back then they are going to say "we are laying off people and cutting back on current health care to kids and the elderly and you want to fund this health reform thing for a trillion dollars."
So if people dont see the connection. Then it will set in soon.
Harry Reid says Obamacare might not be ready this year. That gives me such a sense of relief. I did not realize how much of a burden on my brain that beast was.
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I thought this WAS a real job!
Wait until Medicaid is expanded through Obamacare which in fact creates a huge unfunded mandate crammed down the throats of the states who must provide the match. If there are any idiot voters left in any idiot states who are only concerned about balancing state budgets and think it is not connected to what is going on with health care, then that little illusion will disappear. Also, wait until stimulus one runs out which most states have used to plug their state budgets. If there is not another round of stimulus more states will go off a cliff. If we start getting tough with them and tell them they need to cut back then they are going to say "we are laying off people and cutting back on current health care to kids and the elderly and you want to fund this health reform thing for a trillion dollars."
So if people dont see the connection. Then it will set in soon.
I agree with what you say, but, your very true facts don't change because of who won in New Jersey or Virginia. California will still be broke either way.....
I agree with what you say, but, your very true facts don't change because of who won in New Jersey or Virginia. California will still be broke either way.....
Dan
Quite so. Thus I have been equally adamant about the fact that what goes on in the states has impact on what will happen in Washington in addition to Washington/national politics having an impact on state issues.When people think about where we could end out with uncontrolled expenses in Washington now, more and more people think California. I am not saying that voting for sprawling federal programs in D.C or not voting for them is a referendum on how much you want the country to be like California.........or perhaps I am.
Eventually California is going to come collecting. That state has sent more money out of state in the form of federal spending than any other. We were all riding their coattails for a while. Payback is a b*****.
Obama Has Lost Momentum
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