Re: Reserves Are Raising Term Prices
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My guess, and this is only a guess.....
The reserves they had were in things like what used to be relatively safe mortgage securities, commercial real estate, etc.
Those reserves are not worth what they used to be.
To have reserves to write new business, they borrowed the money, or at least attempted to. This adds to the cost of business, because now, instead of earning a profit on your investments, you are now paying interest on the loans. This cost gets reflected in higher premiums.
The memo would be correct. It is the current economic slump. Remember, the way they got the term rates down was because of the overall performance of the underlying investments. This works both ways.
Okay, I went and looked briefly. Aviva has a lot of companies, so it's hard to get a specific number, but overall, they are running a 100% (give or take 2%) combined ratio. This is pretty ugly in pure insurance terms, but is usually managable if the investments are performing. Obviously, they are not. They have lost money on the investments as well.
Dan
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