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Reply to Crestmont Research: Waiting for Average     
Old 03-06-2017, 03:55 PM   #1
DHK
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Crestmont Research: Waiting for Average Crestmont Research: Waiting for Average
Just found this from Crestmont Research:

Waiting for Average (written April 2016):

The long-term average return from the stock market is 10.1%. As Baby Boomers continue to retire, they will increasingly rely upon their investments and pensions for income. The youngest Boomers have about a decade to compound their savings into a retirement payload. Even younger Millennials have a vested interest in stock market returns for a secure retirement. So, from 2016, what length of time is needed to assure that you will receive the historical long-term average return of 10.1%?

Answer: It will NEVER happen. From today forward, investors from today will not achieve the long-term average return. Not in ten years, twenty years, fifty years, or the nearly ninety years that represent the most recognized long-term average return.
https://www.crestmontresearch.com/do...ng-For-Avg.pdf
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Old 03-10-2017, 09:03 PM   #2
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Crestmont Research: Waiting for Average Re: Crestmont Research: Waiting for Average
There are arguments also why 10.1% may be too low. We don't necessarily know how medical advances and technology will play. They don't have to follow the same pattern since 1926. There is also the argument that the true market is not represented in the SP500. There is greater diversion now. Fidelity is a giant company privately owned never listed. We did not have this much private equity during 1926.

Random Walk on Wall Street has a good summary of these arguments.
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Old 03-10-2017, 10:22 PM   #3
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Crestmont Research: Waiting for Average Re: Crestmont Research: Waiting for Average DHK is the thread starter for: Crestmont Research: Waiting for Average

We'll just have to see once the rest of the S&P 500 start reporting their earnings according to GAAP. I'm going to go out on a limb and believe that if their earnings are NOT according to GAAP... that they are over-estimating their earnings.

The SEC Is Starting To Worry About Non-GAAP Earnings | Seeking Alpha
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