Monti_Ray
Expert
- 91
Does anyone know what will be the amount (ballpark number) of yearly subsidy fed is going to inject into the system via the exchanges/marketplaces?
Monti
Monti
Total Amount of Fed's Yearly Subsidy?
- Thread starter Monti_Ray
- Start date
- 8,448
The total number will be around a trillion plus dollars over the next 10 years, Monti. Be sure to get your share by signing up lots of new clients for yourself!
-Allen
-Allen
How long do you think the purported fpl model for subsidies will last?
- 4,096
I say the subsidies will last at 3 years maybe 4.
The gov. has grossly underestimated the amount of subsidies they will be paying out.
The entire concept of the law was to insure people without coverage. The problem is all the small groups in this county will drop employer sponsored plans. There will be a huge influx to the exchanges.
Go to any rural town and watch how those small group employers drop. The welder that is making $15 a hour is going to have huge benefit on the exchange. A lot of these business owners are making around the 400% poverty level.
The gov. has grossly underestimated the amount of subsidies they will be paying out.
The entire concept of the law was to insure people without coverage. The problem is all the small groups in this county will drop employer sponsored plans. There will be a huge influx to the exchanges.
Go to any rural town and watch how those small group employers drop. The welder that is making $15 a hour is going to have huge benefit on the exchange. A lot of these business owners are making around the 400% poverty level.
http://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/cbofiles/attachments/43900_ACAInsuranceCoverageEffects.pdf
Link to CBO estimates as of Feb. 2013. (Most recent I had bookmarked)
Moral of the story, the cost is made up of a lot of estimates. Premiums, average income, unemployment, immigration, participation, resistance, loophole abuse, pay vs. play ratio, collection rates, personnel and facility costs, etc.
When talking about something this large, a 10% change in how many people participate could mean a 100-150 billion dollar error over 10 years.
BTW, 11 years (2013-end of 2023), tax/fine/penalty income included, the "net cost of coverage provisions" is $1.329 Trillion
My .02, I agree with ABC and Somarco, more people will bend over backwards and game the system for free money than the government assumes. It's pretty uncommon for them to overestimate usage looking at their history (and when they do, they grossly underestimate the per-unit cost, as in the PCIP program).
One way or another, this is going to cost more than they think.
Link to CBO estimates as of Feb. 2013. (Most recent I had bookmarked)
Moral of the story, the cost is made up of a lot of estimates. Premiums, average income, unemployment, immigration, participation, resistance, loophole abuse, pay vs. play ratio, collection rates, personnel and facility costs, etc.
When talking about something this large, a 10% change in how many people participate could mean a 100-150 billion dollar error over 10 years.
BTW, 11 years (2013-end of 2023), tax/fine/penalty income included, the "net cost of coverage provisions" is $1.329 Trillion
My .02, I agree with ABC and Somarco, more people will bend over backwards and game the system for free money than the government assumes. It's pretty uncommon for them to overestimate usage looking at their history (and when they do, they grossly underestimate the per-unit cost, as in the PCIP program).
One way or another, this is going to cost more than they think.
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