U.S. P & C Insurers Facing Hardest Market in a Generation

Al3x Lee

Guru
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An interesting article was published a couple of weeks ago by the American Property Casualty Insurance Association (APCIA). It examines that this is the hardest property market in a generation. https://www.apci.org/media/news-releases/release/75202/

For me, this solidifies my belief that the crisis is primarily caused by the current American culture and climate change. Unfortunately, these problems are likely to get worse. There seems to be plenty of sentiment among the general public and politicians that we can regulate our way out of these things.

“The U.S. property casualty insurance industry is facing significant pressure from rising economic inflation, legal system abuse, supply chain constraints, increasing catastrophic weather driving up losses, and historic cost increases for reinsurance and other forms of capital,” said Karen Collins, APCIA vice president, property and environmental. “The combined effects are resulting in the hardest market cycle in a generation. Commercial and personal property lines customers, particularly those in high-risk regions, may feel the effects of recent, elevated cost trends.”

  • The price of single-family residential home construction materials have climbed 33.9 percent since the start of the pandemic, while trade services are up 27 percent.
  • 2022 was the eighth year in a row the U.S. suffered at least 10 catastrophes causing over a billion dollars in losses.
  • 2022 combined ratio for U.S. homeowners line is estimated to reach 107.9 precent, as insurers paid out more money to cover losses and expenses than they collected in premiums.
  • A.M. Best noted personal lines (auto and homeowners) incurred an estimated underwriting loss of $34.9 billion in 2022, nearly tripling the prior-year level and driving an industry five-year high underwriting loss.
  • The U.S. property casualty insurance industry’s policyholder surplus fell 9.4 percent in 2022, according to A.M. Best, and is likely to be the largest drop since early 2009, according to S&P.
  • Reinsurance broker Guy Carpenter estimates that property-catastrophe reinsurance prices rose 30.1 percent in 2023, following a 14.8 percent increase in 2022.
 
To clarify, I do NOT think we can regulate our way out. I think we need a cultural shift, but I don't have the faintest idea of how we could accomplish that.
 
Read it. It was interesting. The Title grabs the eye! And should drive home a point: our industry has not had to be Culled in a long time. That is occurring right now!
 
Thanks for the Share @Al3x Lee . Nice article. One of the better short synopsis out there. And the white paper - super easy to download [unlike many others.]

Of course the article does use my favorite overused term "Perfect Storm" - but It probably a fair use of the word in this situation.

These are my personal favs:
  • "property-catastrophe reinsurance prices rose 30.1 percent "
  • "combined ratio for U.S. homeowners line is estimated to reach 107.9 precent"
  • (auto and homeowners) incurred an estimated underwriting loss.... driving an industry five-year high underwriting loss.
  • price of.. home construction materials have climbed 33.9 percent
WOW!
 
I'm California P&C commercial only, and I don't think "Perfect Storm" is an appropriate term.

It's a goddamn Sh*t Show.

I just found out another large carrier - Nationwide - is exiting the California commercial market completely.

California is one of the worst hit, and it is mostly a result of regulation.
 
Just an edit, it turns out at least for now that Nationwide is putting a pause on new commercial business, I don't know if they're necessarily non-renewing. Yet.
 
It is bad now but I have seen worse. I have been an agent for 50 years. In 1975 and 1976 the P & C companies lost more money than they had made in the past 20 years. It was a blood bath. Commercial and homeowner policies were written for a 3 year period with the rates locked in for 3 years. Companies were losing money but couldn't increase rates until the 3 years was up. I hated to open the mail each morning because there would be another company pulling out of the state. I had companies that would tell me I could write 6 new auto policies for the year and 6 new homeowner polices for the year. The only reason I survived was because I had a contract with Continental Insurance company and they were the first company to write a home and auto package on the same policy. I could write all of these I wanted, but the underwriting was tough so I grew when other agencies were trying to survive. Then in the in the mid 80's interest rates were high and companies were fighting to write business. I had one company tell me they were going to use the LCS method to write polices. I asked what this was and the rep said, lie, cheat and steal. Companies were lowering rates to get the business. There was a saying back then that P & C companies couldn't stand prosperity because when they were making money they lowered rates.
 
Honesty seems to be hard to find anymore!

The cost of everything is way up & there is much more infrastructure. Climate Change is normal & a zero sum factor.

Northa Atlantic & Western Pacific, overall landfall hurricane has decreased since 1940's - Number of major hurricane landfalls show no trend since then. - Hurricane intensity decreased since the 1980's - Decreased frequency of strong tornadoes USA - No significant change in floods - Wildfires decreased, SLR normal ...The IPCC / UN is a data fraud war on humanity!

Remove urban heat island effects and NOAA shows the US has no warming trend since 2005 ...today is slightly cooler than '05 - Global Temps cooler -0.37c
 
It is bad now but I have seen worse. I have been an agent for 50 years. In 1975 and 1976 the P & C companies lost more money than they had made in the past 20 years.

Wow, thanks for sharing! After reading your post, I search and found this article from 1977. It sounds a lot like what's happening today. [EXTERNAL LINK] - Casualty Insurance: Troubled Industry

Apparently Geico never learned.. 15 mins could save you 15% or more (Please keep bailing us out)

From the article...

"Finally, the industry itself shares the blame for the losses. Starting in the early 1970s, many companies cut rates by around 15 per cent in an effort to attract more premium income. The idea was to invest heavily in the stock market and to reap greater profits from investments rather than from premiums. But the stock market turned sour and inflation soared. The insurance companies were forced to deplete their cash reserves to pay the growing claims of policyholders. One large automobile insurer, Government Employees Insurance Co. (Geico), came perilously close to financial collapse in 1976. Only a bail-out by the nation's other major property-casualty insurers and a transfusion of cash from stockholders saved the company from insolvency."
 
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